taiwan had decided, inexplicably, to commit geopolitical, political, fiscal, as well as monetary suicide
5% of its most productive compatriots live in and around Shanghai
enough of its retired military officers work for the people's liberation army
many of its citizens hold macau papers
reasons unknown ;0)
and now, plans are already firm, only pr work being eased into mindset of all concerned
usa, already warned by prc about 24-36 months ago, will step aside, else russia wins, and now usa is in fact singing from the prc hymn book
japan cannot be on, because it cannot afford to
australia will stand down, because it has no stomach and no interest
perhaps new zealand wants to step up to the plate swing above its category - we shall see
the ways to inevitable solution range the full spectrum
buy, hard buy all shanghai & hong kong shares on any and all bad news
believe first line of approach will be palace coup, clean, quick, fuss free, less the commotion, and limited to within the four walls of the palace
the fuss-free regime change can thus be attributed fully to internal issues and characters, and so remain fuss-free
some believe taiwan will be about a physical fight
whereas they ought to believe that all is about positioning, and nothing in Sun Tze's book says war is a good idea - the best war is one that is fought and won without firing a single shot, per Sun Tze - excellent book
scmp.com
New Taiwan strategy expected to include worst-case scenario
Minnie Chan
Sep 27, 2007
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The central leadership will draw up a new Taiwan strategy at the Communist Party's 17th National Congress next month, with experts saying they expect Beijing will prepare for a worst-case scenario.
Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Li Weiyi said yesterday that Taiwan would be among the key issues discussed at the party congress, and a new strategy would be formed. He did not elaborate.
"In line with cross-strait development in recent years, the 17th party congress will lay down the guiding principle, the strategic goal and key steps [to solving the Taiwan problem] for the future," Mr Li said. "It aims at directing and improving cross-strait ties, and it will be very significant to the progress of peaceful unification."
Earlier this month, President Hu Jintao warned that Beijing would stop at nothing to prevent Taiwan moving towards independence. He was responding to Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's bid to seek a UN seat for the island, a move widely seen as a step towards Taiwan becoming a fully independent nation.
Beijing-based Renmin University professor Shi Yinhong said he believed the leadership would take the opportunity to form a consensus on how to handle the challenges, including the push by Mr Chen and his Democratic Progressive Party to gain full UN membership for the island and their plan to hold a referendum on the issue.
While Professor Shi said he expected the central government would follow the overall principle of "seeking peaceful reunification with Taiwan", he warned that Beijing would also prepare for the worst.
"If those acts cause any immediate danger to cross-strait relations, I think Beijing would take very strong steps to oppose them. It would do everything to hold on to Taiwan, and it is now ready to resort to any measures, including using both its soft and hard power."
He said hard power meant mainland leaders would take military action against Taiwan if the situation in the Taiwan Strait got out of control.
He also said that if the central leadership had to resort to the military option, it would not just "launch a few missiles without warheads" over Taiwan - as former president Jiang Zemin did in 1996.
"We must remember that the mainland now is totally different from Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin's eras. With more than two decades' economic development, our military power has reached a certain level."
Liu Guoshen , the head of Xiamen University's Taiwan Research Institute, said the current situation was not as dangerous as some people in Beijing feared.
"Actually, the chance of Taiwan becoming an independent nation is very slim because of the lack of support on the island. There are political disagreements between Beijing and Taiwan, and it takes time to solve them. We still need to promote more non-government exchanges."
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