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Politics : RAMTRONIAN's Cache Inn

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From: NightOwl	9/28/2007 12:33:54 PM
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Hynix says that the standard commodity DRAM market is going to have to begin moving to FinFET cell designs at 45nm and go all the way to vertical transistors at 35nm. But they see the capacitor remaining in stacked/cylindrical designs until the 30nm range then something drastic will have to be done. Unfortunately they still don't know what: edn.com Will it be nonvolatile? With PCRAM's limited write cycles we know it won't be a floating gate IP. Stable MRAM is too big. And FRAM will need a new formula and/or cell structure to scale below 90nm. I would expect the probe storage guys to start making a lot of noise again. But talk is cheap and probe storage would mean separating the logic and memory process or changing/complicating logic design even worse than 3D cell designs would. In the logic arena designs are ameliorating the scaling problem by going to multi processors. It seems quite likely that something(s) similar will happen in memory area as with chip stacking and the proliferation of numerous CMOS memory "types" like FRAM which can excel in one or more performance areas until such time as manufacturing improvements or changes can produce more "Universal" solutions. It would not surprise me if this period in which various memory IP gets run up the industry "flag pole" lasts another 10 years. Outside of all the hype, nobody has visibility on the future prospects from what I can see. Whatever happens as the technology goes forward I would expect larger percentages of the R&D dollar to go into Ferroelectric research because: (1) it allows a Fab to make money while its doing the R&D; (2) FRAM has proven adaptability in the embedded/logic space and PZT also has huge potential in optical switching should memory and logic move in that direction; (3) when FRAM's ability to hold a charge wears out it operates just like a DRAM; (4) FRAM's basic switching mechanism is as fast as any at <100 picoseconds; and (5) solutions to DRAM's increasing "aspect ratio" problems may well benefit FRAM's move to 3D cell structures. But that's all only indirectly related to RMTR's current and future business prospects. Currently about all I can conclude from the "evidence" is that FRAM will get a piece of the pie. How big that piece may well depend upon further developments like #5 above. 0\|0

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