CoTs, yeah! Missed my last call, hence twice shy! <g>
Rem: my observation tell me both silver and gold have to be in the same configuration for my rally/correction to be valid. Last time, I "expected" silver to resume it's trend (which it did not).
So, this week's:
Gold total OI: very high in the standard error band, bullish. Been there since the Sep 14th report.
Caution: at the high of the band, it could reverse it's course.
OTOH, it can stay at the upper part of the band for months: 10 months is not un-common. Total OI is all time high.
Individual contracts: the Dec futes do their usual bullish spike.
Commercial net shorts: in the above band, one week earlier then the total OI.
Summary, gold is in a bullish configuration. Silver should confirm.
It does not yet.
Total OI: has rebounded from the low, but needs to stay above 131K contracts to be in bull mode, this is 15K contracts more then yesterday.
Individual contracts: Dec futes also do their bullish spike.
Commercial net shorts: does not indicate much speculation.
To be bullish, these should be -47K (shorts) vs. actual -28K
Summary:
gold total OI must remain above 400K, commercial shorts 133K
and silver should show 131K total OI and 47K comm shorts
for me to call a rally mode.
Meanwhile, CoTs analysis is more positive then neutral.
Caution: silver in danger of building a right shoulder on long-term charts. Visible on 5yr charts.
To close on a positive note: gold in Euro is very bullish.
To not close too positively:
revenues of miners is the result of sales in US Dollars, while exploitation costs are paid in foreign currencies.
Stay away from US companies?
South-Africa again? The Rand is currently gaining above the Euro.
Disclosure: I am 100% in Canadian companies.
Aqaiting a wild ride to last till mid-Dec.
But, have been wrong before,
signing HJKL <g> |
