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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: Bearcatbob who wrote (91286)9/29/2007 1:22:09 PM
From: ChanceIs  Read Replies (1) of 206168
 
>>>Very simple. It is a simple black and white numeric exercise.<<<

Of course its simple. You and I know that well.

Why is the argument in the court of public opinion??? Why aren't the political and business managers conferring in the board rooms before a unilateral announcement on the government's part - which sent the equity markets into a tailspin?

Sadly business in Canada and the US is not done by goodwill and mutual respect with a feeling of partnership. Usually the government drops a bomb to see if and how hard industry will push back.

As an equity investor, you have to waste your time reading the newspapers about governmental actions instead of doing useful things like studying the heat balance on the tar sands or global supply and demand figures.

I have written often about my Calpine experience. I will bore you with yet another chapter. All of those merchant generators signed LT contracts with the state of California back in '01. In '02 California decided that it wanted to "renegotiate" - basically get a lower price with nothing in return. Of course all of the equities tanked on the news. Calpine decided not to fight it, and threw California a token rubber bone so that Gray Davis could puff up and tell the good people how he protected them from those evil energy companies. Allegheny fought it for about three years and won - at a very large cost. Both made defensible business decisions. What would have happened if the merchants had untied and fought back hard and viciously from the get-go??? They would have won, and won sooner - a contract is a contract. They would have demonstrated to Wall Street their resolve, that California couldn't in the future push them around, and that the merchant business was well founded. Things didn't happen that way and it was bad for the stockholders.

I find it very heartening that Encana at least ostensibly, is driving a bull dozer through the foyer of the Alberta state house.

BTW: I met a fellow from Friedman, Billings Ramsey the other day. They pay him well to full time hang around the halls of Congress keeping his finger on the pulse. If the market wasn't treating me so well recently, my resume would be in his hands today.
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