Peabody Coal vanguard retirement forum Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Peabody Coal vanguard retirement forum

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

From: MACD X	9/29/2007 8:40:19 PM
	of 75

09 30 07 weekly update. there is no change in the recommended investment fund and that is to be 100% invested in the Vanguard prime cap fund which tracks the large cap sector. Very few changes or signals to exit the market will occur using our stratagy and you will be invest 100 most of the time. Its more possible that I may have a recommendation to change funds at some point. stockcharts.com This week I would like to point out some information about investment cycles and how they have worded in the past from the chart that is above. This will identify strong period of the market and weak periods. The chart I am going to show is based around the presidential 4 year cycle. This is a well know cycle and is followed by many. On the chart above the green vertical lines starts a bull market and will last until the next red vertical line, the bull markets last about 2 1/2 years while the bear side lasts about 1 1/2. The markets have been amazingly strong in some cycles and dont fall much at all and actually gain some. But they gain much more in the strong areas that start about 1 1/2 years before a presidential election and last to the following year after the election. You can see the effects on the chart. We are in the strong part of the market now and should last until March 2009. March 2009 will start the weak cycle of the market and it will not be as easy to push the market up at this time as the cycle will be like blowing a strong wind in the face of the market, right now the wind is at our backs. What concerns me about the current market cycle is that we have already piled up 2500 dow points during this cycle, this is about what you can expect, so we may trade flat to down for the rest of this bullish cycle. From what I can tell from what read and know about some indicators a recession is likely in the coming year, this would put the end to the bullish cycle and start the bear cycle early, This is of little concern to use although because we are not short term traders but long term. The signals on our fund will cross over in the event of a market down turn and we will be recommended to exit at that time. What we do want to do is recognize when is a likely time that a market fall would be likely. The closer we get to the next red line on the chart March 2009 the more serious I will take a crossing signal. The chart below is the Vanguard Prime cap fund with the signal blue lines and red lines, notice the blue is over the red and this is the reason we stay invested, you can see the effects if the market does fall, stockcharts.com The other things on the chart besides the blue line and red line is called candlesticks, red ones are down weeks while white ones where up weeks, each week will generate a new candlesticks Below is a discription of candlesticks stockcharts.com

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next