try this ...
- inflation heating up in china, offset by years of real wage increase (100% in 5-7 years), now to be offset by a bit of wage inflation spiral & price control (neither a definitive solution in lieu of currency rise), but china wants to grab the magic of floating reserve currency status, sooner rather than later, targeted an announced 5% per annum currency revaluation to prep the way gradually - news to you, nothing to do with what the usa wished foro wanted, and besides, whatever you think you wish for, it will mean bad news for you, as measured by claim on wallet
- as to reduced export to usa, yes, that will happen eventually, and that will be because you can afford less, have to afford less, and that your credit is no longer good
- export from china is, wait for this, at an all time high, going higher, naturally
- the China ex-works (effectively export price) and USA retail price differentia is anywhere between 1:5 to 1:20, product depending; the shopping for old european brand by overseas chinese and china inc has been underway for a while; there is no realistic exchange rate that will result in substantively reduced export from China to USA; politically implemented protectionist moves will pulverize the USA-based importers, and devastate the USA-based private and official balance sheets; non-starters, until and unless, where upon the trade-interruptus event, you will be poorer.
recommendation: buy gold before your soldiers invades persia on some made-up reason, and your officialdom trades for favors by betraying the people of georgia and taiwan.
teotwawki-ly yours, tj
reminder: the world is a bit more than the usa
mark the watch & brief: let us see how Bain and China Inc do with acquisition of 3COM - technology, know-how, customers, brands, distribution channels, all in one neat package, offered up by the spendthrifts, to make good on markers called
IBM PC, Panama Canal, 3COM, treasury officials with begging cup in hand, whining senators, soon, enough Chrysler, Taiwan, and just in time, the contents of Fort Knox ... teotwawki dawn approaches
Does the word ONSLAUGHT, or better, in your lingo, SURGE, mean anything to you at all?
China sovereign fund starts at 300 bil, to be increased at 280 bil per annum, and with excess reserve of 450 bil alreay in place, plus an intended reserve of 650 bil, against usa stock mkt cap of 15 tril, subtract out the junk, less the restricted list, ... yeup, just about works, without use of leverage, especially after a 100% exchage rate revaluation.
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