Tom, weather forecasts are not the only factor that has made me somewhat bullish on natty. The other thing (and probably the most important), something that I have discussed in some recent posts, is that the gas-directed rig count has flattened year-over-year. For each of the last 5 years or so (maybe more) the gas-directed rig count has increased by 100 - 300 rigs each year -- not so this time.
Given that most of the US natty demand that is not weather-driven (ie industrial demand) has been more or less permanently squeezed out of the market here, we are left, like it or not, with weather playing a dominant role in dictating the supply/demand balance of this commodity. With this being the case, do we bury our heads in the sand and ignore all long-term weather forecasts because they are inherently inaccurate? It sounds like you do, but I (and, IMO, the rest of the market), disagree, I believe they should be taken into account. |
