Yousef, you're absolutely right. When AMD reported its prior quarter and the stock traded up on the comments of all the Street pros who totally blew it on the number, I wasn't in AMD, but I can only imagine what the shorts were feeling. It's like the market is saying "okay gang, even though you've proved by your overly optimistic estimates that as a group you just don't make the grade when it comes to nailing this company, we're going to turn around and listen to your new spew of overly optimistic blather once again..." (sorry, I just find analysts as a group to be incredibly over-rated, over-followed, and over-whelmingly unimpressive).
In a way, that's why I always tend to get a little uneasy about going in heavy in a position that's going to be totally decided by reaction to an earnings report. You can be dead-on in your overall read, but the market can just say "sorry, your read maybe be right, but the Street pros over here, you know the guys who ended up blowing their estimate, well they're saying XYZ and stock is going the other way today. How much pain are you in for?".
And I really hate when that happens <g>
Good trading,
Tom |
