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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

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Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (23429)	10/3/2007 12:29:18 AM
From: elmatador	of 218043

Post-mortem tech bubble after 7 years. Key important points: Tech bubble was a localized phenomenon. Center of gravity OECD countries There were few countries that could fuel the bubble because the vast majority were only consumers, they didn’t have the industries to sell tech products Main drivers: Internet was nascent and mobile networks taking off Once cold war ended a plethora of technologies were made available for civilian uses. Many entrepreneurs, engineers and scientists saw the market for technologies exclusive of military use. GSM networks were taking off and agglutinated in the tech boom. PC mature making computers were cheap enough By the time it kick-started, PCs were cheap enough to be mass marketed. Asia could ship them by the truck load. Windows easy to use was already established Lasted too long. The length is an important factor. Students went to the university to cash in on it providing cheap specialized labor Telecom ACT of 1996 added fuel. This is important because: 1) Telecommunications moved to become tech and added critical mass. Telcoms was until them like water, sewage and electricity just an public service utility 2) companies not sure how the Act would come out, went to foreign countries to sell their gear. Case in point cable TV Those were the planets that aligned to make the bubble possible. Today for an investment bank perspective, they have anything to compare with what is going today and go back to the only thing they saw in their short life time. The tech bubble. But we know for sure they are wrong. Thus, this, what’s going on right now, namely, the emerging markets’ boom, it is not a repetition of the tech bubble.

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