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Technology Stocks : General Lithography
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To: molemania who wrote (646)10/8/1997 7:33:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance   of 1305
 
I am still holding CYMI and have added to my position with the recent reversal of price.

As far as Infrastructure is concerned, their comments are in line with the 18 month theory of product life cycle and technology advances. I think DUV will come into its own in 2 years and become mainstream. Even if another technology (X-ray, e-beam, EUV, etal.) comes to the forefront, there will still be a multitude of non critical layers to be processed with DUV along with the older process technologies moving into the DUV range.

Historically we see the prediction of the end of a technology as soon as it is first implemented. I-line lithography was pronounced dead at roughly 0.50u but is still around at close to 0.25u as we speak. My fellow engineers are very ingenious and will undoubtedly figure out a way to extend DUV further.

The only thing that will upset this apple cart is the COO (Cost of Ownership) for this process. Right now it is very high. Unless major strides are made to improve upon this, a more cost effective process could displace it. If the next technology beyond DUV is more cost effective then, yes, DUV is in trouble. However, I see economies of scale helping to improve the existing costs as more DUV processes are implemented.

Andrew
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