Mohan, lets try to guess here and then tell me if my logic is wrong or leads you to better ideas.
First, this is a really big deal. ATT is big, but even they have to swallow hard. This makes the odds much greater for a merger than an aquisition,. My guess 80/20. If its a merger proably $55, an aquisition $60-65.
Second, I doubt a merger meets with Lee's idea as a wonderful opprotunity unless he's in the driver seat. I think this is a bigger obstical to a deal than the Regulators. I perceive the ATT board as a big pain in the A--. and the real reason why ATT is in the mess its in. There is always the slight possibility that the board has seen the light and turn the keys over to the new CEO, whoever it maybe.
Unless this is a sweetheart deal for Lee, why agree to it. Why wouldn't he just move on down the road and wait for BT?
Any way you look at it GTE is in the Cat Bird seat. Any senerio you choose its win , win, win. If the regulators kill the deal, we get to sit back and wait for the next deal for an even higher price while we collect our 4% dividend. If they merge, and Lee ends up in control its the Telecom to keep, WCOM not withstanding. If its an aquisition and ATT is in control, you sell out at a good price.
Even If this dealfalls flat on its face, its awaken the Street that GTE is very much in play, well positioned, well managed, and still undervalued vs its prospects. Unless there is a crash, I don't think we'll ever see $45 per share again . Thats history. |
