John Pitera's Market Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: Moominoid who wrote (8339)	10/3/2007 11:23:34 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) of 33421

I think that Hong Kong will have to break the peg to the USD as the USD heads lower and the RMB appreciates. I don't see the Peg being sustainable with the trade inbalances with China; with the RMB having an upward bias as interest rate differentials continue to expand towards higher Greater China Region rates. I suspect the quick trade collapse down to 7.7550 that occurred on Sept 27th, 28th and especially on the 30th is portending, an upcoming depegging. And it can be traded on many of these online currency exchanges such as Deustche Bank's private investor trading platform. I think that the short USD/HKD trade is one of the purer ways of being short the USD relative to the Chinese Mainland currency. The chart feels very heavy for the USD imo. But this is a fundamental view more than a technical view..... or close to an equal portion of each. John

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