Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: mishedlo who wrote (69948)	10/4/2007 12:25:15 PM
From: Incitatus	Read Replies (2) of 116555

Looking ahead to December (click on the above link to see), multiple cuts are priced in. Is it all so simple? Yes. Bernanke has surprised the markets twice now. Could he surprise the markets again for the third time? What surprise? From what I read and heard, the market had anticipated a rate cut each time. For the discount rate cut, Cramer famously screamed about how Bernanke had no choice, it must be given. And I remember a guy on CNBC talking, before the Fed cut, about whether it's bad that the market is so certain that it will get its rate cut. Yes, the market rallied, but not due to surprise. Bernanke does what he's told, when he's told to do it. The only way we learn anything about Bernanke is if jobs are slightly weak to neutral (or horrid) and Bernanke does not cut or if jobs are robust and Bernanke cuts anyway. I think he will keep cutting, regardless of the jobs report. BWTFDIK.

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