Hi Dave,
we went through a lot of confusion for nothing,
don't you think? Yesterday down a couple, today
recouped a couple. You'd look at this at the end
of the week you'd think this is a totally boring
equity. No wonder traders end up a nervous wreck
after a few years on the job. No wonder they're
stupid enough to sell IOM at 22-23 going into the
CHRISTMAS quarter...
concerning the valuation of IOM a year and a half
ago, I think it was for the most part overvalued
when the stock crossed above 30$. Too many people
jumped in thinking the stock would make them rich
quickly and instead got burned for the loss of their
lives! That created tremendous negative feeling
around the company stock and caused it to drop from
55 to 13. Now, I think the company is undervalued
with respect to its bright prospects, and that's
why I'm willing to support the high noise level
generated by day traders...
Concerning estimates, I think IOM only neutrally
performed once (this quarter, last year) when they
invoked slow business in Europe. THat sent estimates
down a couple of cents. I believe that IOM matched
the unrevised estimates at that time, beating the
revised ones by 2cts (I might be remembering wrong though).
This quarter, I would be shocked if they missed...
After all, last quarter they had about 4-5cts charges
due to JAZ disk recall and ZIP chip problems. With a
huge backlog at the end of last quarter and no forecasted
quarter over quarter growth in the estimates, I cannot
imagine them missing. But who knows, right?
Funny, with the DOW down 90 I had only winners in my
portfolio today. Check out these little guys if you
have nothing better to do: TMPL, HDTC.
Regards,
Trilobyte |
