Here's the "sad" part about Gaertner:
Gartner raises, lowers capex forecast
Though Gaertner "slashed" its 2008 forecast from 14.9 % the forecast for 2007/2008 is actually slightly up from $87.3 as of today (2007/2008 combined).
Gaertner's 2007 forecast made six month ago is off by 7.6%.
Interestingly the overall pie remains fairly constant but "growth rates" are being pushed around (and upwards revision come up in the rear view mirror while outlook is getting "slashed").
It's time to extrapolate Don's and Gottfried's data and model our own; it can't be that much worse than Gartner.
I suppose that fit perfectly analyst job description
In April, Gartner said worldwide semiconductor capital equipment spending was forecast to total $40.6 billion in 2007, a 3.2 percent decline from 2006. The market was expected to rebound in 2008, as spending is expected to reach $46.7 billion, a 14.9 percent increase.
Mark LaPedus
EE Times
(07/11/2007 12:30 PM EDT)
SAN JOSE, Calif. — Heading into the Semicon West trade show in San Francisco next week, there is good and bad news for suppliers of semiconductor equipment and materials.
Amid a lull in the IC industry, Gartner Inc. Wednesday (July 11) slightly raised its capital equipment spending forecast for 2007, but lowered it for 2008. (See table below)
Overall capital spending is projected to hit $56.6 billion in 2007, up a mere 0.6 percent over 2006, according to Gartner (Stanford, Conn.). Capital spending is projected to grow 4.8 percent to $59.3 billion in 2008, according to the research firm.
Worldwide semiconductor capital equipment spending is forecast to total $43.1 billion in 2007, a 2.7 percent increase from 2006. The market is expected to rebound in 2008, as spending is expected to reach $45.8 billion, a 6.2 percent increase.
The numbers are different than Gartner's last forecast in April. At that time, Gartner said that overall capital spending was projected to hit $55.2 billion in 2007, down 1.5 percent over 2006. Capital spending was projected to grow 10.7 percent to $61.1 billion in 2008, according to the research firm.
In April, Gartner said worldwide semiconductor capital equipment spending was forecast to total $40.6 billion in 2007, a 3.2 percent decline from 2006. The market was expected to rebound in 2008, as spending is expected to reach $46.7 billion, a 14.9 percent increase.
Right now, the picture is cloudy -- much like the fog at the Semicon West venue in San Francisco. "The lull in demand for semiconductor equipment has arrived," according to a report from Gartner. "New equipment orders are receding as dynamic RAM capital spending budgets are being exhausted, and other segments are not increasing their budgets to compensate."
It's a slightly better picture in 2008. "As for 2008, we anticipate that DRAM spending will decline from this year's peak, and equipment market growth will originate from NAND, logic and foundry, which will drive a second year of slow single-digit growth," according to the firm. "However, strong forecast DRAM unit demand in 2008 negates concerns of overcapacity and provides upside potential for next year."
Indeed, the foundry market is a bright spot. The foundry market's revenue will grow 4.5 percent in 2007 and 18.2 percent in 2008, according to the research firm.
"Utilization for all fabs in the first quarter was 88.6 percent; leading-edge fabs fared better, with utilization rates exceeding 93 percent," according to the firm. "For the remainder of 2007, overall utilization rates will climb gradually and will be at almost 90 percent by year-end. By the end of 2008, overall utilization rates will be in the low 90 percent range, setting up for more growth in 2009."
The supply and demand picture is a mixed bag for equipment makers. The wafer fab equipment (WFE) segment's revenue will rise 5 percent in 2007 and 4.8 percent in 2008.
Revenue for the packaging and assembly equipment (PAE) segment will decline 5.7 percent in 2007 but grow 13.1 percent in 2008. The automated test equipment (ATE) segment's revenue will decrease 4.8 percent in 2007 but grow 10.2 percent in 2008.
Revenue for the semiconductor assembly and test services (SATS) market will increase 9.8 percent in 2007 and 16.5 percent in 2008.
What will drive investments for the remainder of this year and into the next? "Although memory investment, especially in DRAM, will slow, it will still represent the largest segment for capital investment," according to Gartner.
"NAND oversupply is melting, and pricing is improving. Hence, NAND spending will pick up in late 2007 and into 2008 as demand growth continues unabated," according to the firm. "Logic-related capacity investment, for integrated device manufacturer (IDM) and foundry combined, should decline about 9 percent in 2007 and this will increase by a similar amount in 2008."
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