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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: cnyndwllr who wrote (244299)10/8/2007 1:53:58 PM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
The Sunni Arabs have realized belately that alliance with Al Qaeda and attempting to put the Baathists back in power was a really stupid idea. Now they have turned on Al Qaeda and are in alliance with the Americans, who are trying to broker some reconciliation with the central government. AQI is in deep shit and so is the Baathist insurgency.

Only you would decide this has to be a failure. Being seen to beat your enemies - and the Sunni tribes wouldn't be flipping if AQI and the Baathists were the stronger force - is a good thing. Being seen to have the endurance to stay and get the job done is a very good thing for the Americans.

It's still up for grabs whether the Americans can broker a settlement with Baghdad. But if AQI and the Iraqi Quds forces, both of whom are working hard to foment outright civil war, can be defeated and cleared out, reconciliation has a chance. Lots of Iraqi politicians want very much to avoid civil war.
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