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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 378.38+2.7%Nov 10 4:00 PM EST
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To: elmatador who wrote (23732)10/9/2007 12:16:00 PM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (2) of 217668
 
I am coming to the tentative that the sub prime / mortgage reset crisis is only partially resolved, and one reason is that the FED is intentionally stopping from doing everything it can to resolve it.

I expect the FED and others want much of the rest of the sub prime bailout to be done by fiscal means, from Congress and the two mortgage GSEs, Fannie and Freddie. The FED doesn't want to cut interest rates to bail out home buyers. They will cut interest rates only to help the over all economy.

I also think the FED wants to see Congress and/or Treasury direct Fannie and Freddie to do the heavy lifting to bail out the mortgage reset crowd, subsidizing them, and also eating up and/or locking up more of Fannie and Freddie's capital.

This would mean maybe a shallow ressesion outside of housing and consumer discretionary.

I think it means the USD won't go through the floor.

Maybe the USD could drop another 12%, or some other Fibonnacci level....but the short dollar trade might be pausing (likely), or at a reversal (unlikely until there is a plan for exiting Iraq and trade deficit keeps improving).

I'm not sure where this leaves gold and silver, and oil and metals.

I think I want to focus on companies like TRGL and BZP that are finding oil and gas. We may be back to picking specific stocks instead of major themes.
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