I think you have to apply the same logic to the Republican candidates as you do to Hillary. Right now Rudy has maybe 25% of the overall republican primary electorate, and certainly nothing like that in Iowa. Romney has a larger percentage in both Iowa and New Hampshire than does Rudy....and then there is Fred. Basically, you have three or four candidates between 15% and 25%. I would suspect that 90% of each canddiate's support would flow to the eventual nominee.
But the same is true on the Democratic side. I don't believe that people supporting either Obama or Edwards right now, not to mention Biden, Dodd et al, would vote for a Republican instead of Hillary. Yes, some might, but no greater a percentage than would be true the other way (disappointed republican voting democratic).
The Clintons do not have the machine in Iowa they have elsewhere. Bill didn't campaign there in 1992 cause of Harkin and Edwards never left the State after 2004. For Hillary to have a meaningful lead in this generally rural state, not at all inclined towards here brand of big-city, big government, (frankly, more centrist on foreign affairs) policy is telling.
If she wins in Iowa for four or five percent, she will be tough to stop, IMHO. She could ultimately present for the Democrats what George Bush presented for the Republicans in 2000: A candidate who can win if, if, everyone gets behind her (him)....but only then. The rallying cry will be: "She isn't perfect, but she isn't George Bush"...
The Republicans must also find such a candidate if Hillary's negatives are to be a major stumbling block. Right now the Country is tired of Mr. Bush. The republicans have yet to provide someone who is espousing clear alternatives to what is deemed the chief Bush legacy: Iraq. Immigration is a negative too, as the democrats made hay on that one with latinos and others. The republicans need someone who is not George Bush and can yet run on generally conservative principles. Right now, the guy who is doing that is Ron Paul....(I know, I know). But why is there so much allure to the guy? Even at grass roots level? Because he represents what a lot of conservatives want the republican candidate to actually stand for.....
Otherwise the republicans just chew each other up and eventually go home unhappy while the democrats rally around the person who isn't perfect but also isn't George W. Bush. In such a case, Hillary wins....going away. |
