The coming US dollar crisis Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: stockycd who wrote (1401)	10/10/2007 6:40:51 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (3) of 71409

Not sure what that chart is screaming. The trend for bond price is lower since the actual cut, so it is saying there will be less cuts than anticipated in late September, and that's why the dollar is rallying. Looking at the behavior of the Fed funds over the last few DAYS, the market's perceptions have significantly changed. It is pricing the chance of no cut in October higher than the chance of a cut. This Fed likes surprises on expiration week, but given the dollar reaction to the previous cut and the stock market at new highs, I think Midland is right, they won't cut in October. Well, that does not matter, you are right, the Fed funds is all that matters. So: the Fed funds most probable scenario now is that they don't cut in November either, but they do cut 25 bp in December. That could change soon as well, as Fed funds probabilities are shifting rapidly. clevelandfed.org

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next