Stephen, 2nd reply to, "
" if you poll your urologist friends like I did,you will discover that they are very disappointed in the success rate with MUSE.At my institiution,roughly one out of fifteen responded successfully to the medication.They're avidly awaiting PFE's new agent despite it's "systemic side effects".FYI,I've never owned,shorted or optioned
VVUS ever!! ".
After, my recent attempt to rescue a fellow human being,
" the watcher " ( notice the small cap letters, because I honestly think hi is " NOT watching "), I decided that my half-joking answer
to a fellow physician was substandard and that you deserved at least the same considerate response as he did.
Furthermore, after reviewing your CV, I note that you invested in Informix, a grave mistake,IMHO,( but this is another matter ),but still a grave matter at least short term, " time is money ".So
i felt futher compelled to write back again:
So let's talk about Vivus:
" At my institiution,roughly one out of
fifteen responded successfully to the medication."
Let us for argument sake assume that this is right.Follow me now on these calculations:
- 1 out of 15= 6.6%
-there are 20 mill impotent men in America.
-6.6% of them is 660,000.
-if they consevetively have intercourse once every week, that's = to 50 times a year.
-at $20 of Muse per single act, times 50 acts per year, = $ 1000 per patient per year.
-Total yearly Muse sales based on that is $1000 X 660,000 patients
equals, 660,000,000 in sales, in the US alone.
-If you add another 30 nations you should easily double that to 1 Bill - 1.2 Bill per year.
- Vivus has just reported approximate 120 mill salea per year / and their stock price is $ 40.
Here is a simple problem that you need to answer before expressing any opini0n on Vivus'worth as an investment vehicle:
If at 120 mill $ sales per year Vivus' price is $ 40, what will Vivus' price be when their yearly sales reach 10 times that, iw, i.2 bill?
Would the correct answer perhaps be , let's see $40 per share
times 10 ==$ 400 / share?
TA
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