President 2008
Republicans:
Conservative voters hoping former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.) would be a Reaganesque white knight were likely disappointed by Thompson's performance in his first debate. He took the safe route on nearly every answer, including endorsing the Bush Administration's current policies on Iraq and ethanol subsidies. Needing to distinguish himself, he didn't.
Two months out, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) maintains his leads in Iowa and New Hampshire polls, and one recent South Carolina poll showed Romney ahead. As other candidates begin to compete with Romney for paid media, will these leads evaporate?
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) has become perhaps the best performer in the field and was excellent in Tuesday's debate. But he still faces deep trouble on the right wing of the party.
The Iowa GOP's decision to set the caucuses for January 3 helps Romney. Sooner is better for the front-runner, and a date that close to New Year's Day will make organization more important -- playing to Romney's strength.
Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.) remains an odd phenomenon: He equaled Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in fundraising, he does very well in most straw polls and he draws the loudest applause at the presidential debates. His base is very motivated, and it is ideologically diverse. Still, he barely registers in polls. His limited-government message is far more consistent than that of the other candidates, who push ethanol and farm subsidies. His anti-nation-building stand could have broad appeal, but he wanders off into monetary policy and foreign policy tangents. The threat to the GOP: An independent Paul candidacy is all the more real after he refused to pledge support of the nominee.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) has not quite exploited the momentum of his strong finish in August's Iowa straw poll. He occasionally wrangles double digits in state polls, but he hasn't posted in the top three in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or Florida lately, and he's often fifth or worst. Thompson's entrance tends to crowd out Huckabee. |
