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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (109553)10/11/2007 4:19:45 PM
From: Freedom Fighter  Read Replies (1) of 132070
 
skeeter,

It's not my thinking.

The thinking of those that pushed for war was expressed very well in the letter to President Clinton included in the post below. All of their concerns were obviously heightened by 9/11 and the realization that terrorists even coming to our shores and doing something big was no longer a theoretical risk.

All I can say is that IMO it is definitely incorrect to think in terms of probabilities alone. One must think in terms of consequences of low probability events.

For example, Warren Buffet stopped writing some kinds of super cat insurance after 9/11 (though he increased other forms). I'm sure he wasn't predicting a worst case scenario. He may have thought it was 50-1 against. But he wanted to avoid one because it would be a monumental disaster if it did happen.

The debate should not be about the results, though that's the way most people think. Even those that pushed for war clearly stated they understand the risks in that letter (as did the old Cheney video included in the post).

The debate should be entirely about the mathematical calculations that went into the decision.

From here, the past is also meaningless. We should be recalculating from where we are now.

Results almost always mean nothing because they are always just one of many possible outcomes.

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