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Gold/Mining/Energy : At a bottom now for gold?
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To: Jim Ilchyshn who wrote (791)10/9/1997 9:28:00 AM
From: Doug R   of 1911
 
#8,962 in a series of warnings over 8 years that the market is overvalued. But what has it to do with the price of gold? Is the CPI REALLY the only thing people look at? I doubt it. Economic cycles regularly spark market activity. The demographics (or ecographics) of the baby boom generation follows the same formula of all other population bubbles. The Fed can do no more to "curb" the current phenomenon than they can to curb the economic growth in China. Sure, there will be corrections and deadspots along the way but the baby boomer driving force behind the economy won't begin to wind down until after the year 2005. The rate of entry into the labor force is the biggest factor in inflation and that rate has been decreasing dramatically now that the baby boomers have been assimilated into the labor force. The cost of training, equipment and office space among other things no longer gets passed on to the consumer because these costs are minimal at present. The rate of total financial debt growth in the US reached a peak of 14% per year in 1990 and has trended down since then. Debt to GNP ratio was 2.3 in 1990 and still rising. As of 1996, it's 2.3 and actually falling. There are a few problems with the newsletter article referenced.

Doug R
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