Chris, you have finally struck a few points that are interesting. First off, If ZE had won this contract anytime before July, you can bet the stock would have sailed to the moon on that kind of news. However, we are no longer in a raging bull market, and that kind of news, as terrific as it is, could not serve as continuing force to propel the stock.
Now lets take your point of who the players will be next year. What is currently happening with the big boys is a wait and see attitude. They don't want to get in the curve too early, because this market is quite immature. However, you better believe the big players will be in in '97. Take all the large networkers and take a carving knife. USRX will surely be developing ADSL equipment. A partnership or takeover if the lab work goes too slowly. Cisco has already announced at their networkers meeting in Texas a few months ago that they will be in ADSL. It will only help them further entrench more of their core router business. What I had read in SI is that the CEO of Amati is on Cisco's board of directors. If true, Amati is in a powerful position to be acquired. Cisco probably digests on average six companies a year, maybe more. They are cash rich. Ascend and Cascade will also be players. Cascade has acquired Aris for their remote access technology. Considering Cascade has the highest port density in the industry for frame relay, a new switch will be readied for xDSL cards. Ascend will not rest on their laurels either. They will be in the battle of their lives in the remote access market late this year, through '97. I am betting on a partnership.
So who stands to win? I think many of these smaller companies (in relation to the big boys they are microscopic) like AMTX, Westell, Orckit, stand a great chance of getting bought. Witness what has happened in the ISDN arena in the last three years. Cisco buys Combinet, 3COM buys quickaccess, Sonix, and Primary access, US Robotics buys ISC, and the list goes on and on. I'm betting on eventual takeovers with decent premiums for the stock holders.
ma |
