Ok--just change your name from Fahr to Math and this will explain why you are just shining on these folks to make a claim that even Brinker didn't have the cajones to claim for himself.
I think it is high time to stop the BS in trying to condone Bob Brinker's deception when it comes to the QQQ fiasco and his model portfolios. I don't believe for one minute any honest person believes that any reasonable person taking all of Bob Brinker's advice as given would have purchased QQQs on the basis of the letter below in October 2000 and sold them on the basis of the TOTAL CONTENT of the newsletter weeks later in Nov 2000.
I don't know why Fahr (long after he was totally put out with Brinker's deceptive practices on the QQQ fiasco) belately chose to claim this bogus BS about Brinker recommending subscribers sell QQQs in Nov 2000 and go to cash. It didn't happen, he knows it and I suspect his dislike for Brinker's critics has caused him to stake out this rather bizzare claim. Let's just look at the facts.
In January 2000 Bob Brinker said he was not bearish but recommended a "tactical asset allocation" that required those following his advice to sell 60 % of all equity positions including the model portfolios.
In October 2000 Brinker sent this one of a kind urgent bulletin after bragging on his abilty to do short term trading for months and even saying that the way you make money in a bear market is to play the counter trend rallies. His troops on his website and the other Brinker sites who trusted him and thought he was competent were all jazzed to have Bob call another CTR "just for subscribers" . (there is no accounting for the idiocy of cultists) .
Here is the text that has been known to Fahr and the rest of the Brinker discussion groups since it has been on the net for years. You will note that it is obvious that Brinker wanted all subscribers both conservative and aggressive to participate and he gave specific amounts that INCLUDED MONIES FROM SELLING MODEL PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS in Jan 2000.
"MARKETIMER is projecting a significant countertrend rally which is expected to be led by the Nasdaq 100 Index. We expect this rally to persist over a period of approximately 2-4 months, and to generate Nasdaq gains in excess of 20% from the vicinity of the recently established Nasdaq closing low point.
We view this projected Nasdaq rally as a significant trading opportunity for MARKETIMER subscribers seeking potential short-term capital gains. Our clear vehicle of choice for this opportunity is the Nasdaq 100, which is traded on the American Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol QQQ.
We recommend MARKETIMER subscribers with aggressive objectives invest 30% to 50% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares in order to exploit this opportunity. Also, we recommend subscribers with conservative investment objectives invest 20% to 30% of CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares in order to take advantage of this opportunity.
MARKETIMER will provide follow up guidance for this short-term opportunity in regular monthly editions, and, if necessary, in follow up bulletins.
We recommend subscribers interested in taking advantage of this recommendation act immediately."
Now besides the debate over whether this bulletin represents incompetence or dishonesty since there was NO DATE, NO DISCUSSION OF SUITABILITY, NO MENTION OF RISK, and NO EXIT STRATEGY, there was also EVERY INDICATION THAT BOB BRINKER WAS TALKING ABOUT ALL CASH RESERVES INCLUDING THOSE RAISED FROM SALES OF "MODEL PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS" TO BE USED IN THIS "OPPORTUNITY". There was not ONE SINGLE LINE OF TEXT OR ONE SINGLE WORD THAT TOLD A SUBSCRIBER THAT THESE QQQ's SHOULD NOT BE PURCHASED WITH MODEL PORTFOLIO CASH RESERVES NOR THAT THERE WAS ANY DISTINCTION IN CASH RESERVES.
Now Fahr chose to pick one sentence out of two pages of tripe that was Brinker's November 2000 newsletter (December was similarly devoted almost exclusively to touting the QQQ "OPPORTUNITY" for up to 32% of an entire portfolio with no mention of "model portfolios). It is important to put that in context as he well knows that line was near the bottom of the second page with BOTH PAGES dealing othewise exclusively with the QQQ OPPORTUNITY and Brinker was JAZZED about the prospects. NO WAY ANY SUBSCRIBER READING BRINKER'S WORDS WOULD HAVE THOUGHT HE WANTED THEM TO SELL THE QQQS AND GO TO CASH.
It seems that under the fair use provisions since Fahr is trying to describe a seven year old newsletter by Brinker as urging subscribers to sell the QQQs at a loss that they bought weeks before in October on his urgent bulletin recommendation and put the money back into cash reserves. Total bull-oney and only a more thorough view of this can show you that his taking one sentence out of the context of two pages devoted nearly exclusively to this QQQ "OPPORTUNITY" is bogus.
As intially recommended in our mid October subscriber bulletin Marketimer is projecting a major countertrend rally led by the Nasdaq 100 index. We expect this rally to last a minimum of two to four months and to continue at least into the first quarter of 2001. We are projecting gains of at least 20% as measured from the Nasdaq closing low point.
On October 12 the Nasdaq comp closed at 3074, it's low for the year and the QQQ shares closed at 75.00.
We would view any subsequent retesting of the area of this low point as an exceptional entry point. This would correspond to price range in the low to mid 70s on the QQQshares...........In our view gains off the closing Nasdaq low point have the potential to exceed 20% by a wide margin. This is especially true if the recent Nasdaq lows are retested in the month of November...............
Marketimer subscribers with aggressive objectives can invest from 30% to 50% of cash reserves in either the QQQshares or the Rydex OTC fund to participate in this recommendation. that amounts to a potential exposure of 19% to 32% of an entire aggressive portfolio....The balance of reserves will remain in money market funds.
Conservative investors can invest up to 20% to 30% of cash reserves in this recommendation using either the QQQshares or the Rydex OTC fund"
(Throughout all all of page one there was zero mention of model portfolios but obviously there was a reiteration albeit somewhat deceptive as to price since one was not even included in the "ACT IMMEDIATELY BULLETIN".)
Starting on page two
'If necessary Marketimer will provide follow up guidance in interim special bulletin form. In addition any further special bulletin will be available to current subscribers on the secure section at Bobbrinker.com. During the life of this recommendation we will provide followup guidance in each monthly edition of marketimer.
(Now it is in the second paragraph on the second page before Brinker mentions ANYTHING other than the QQQ fiasco and further encourages playing it with significant sums of the money raised from selling equities including model portfolio monies)
He then has a paragraph devoted to saying that he expected the bear market to last one to two years BUT NO MENTION OF SELLING THE QQQS to invest in cash. There was NO mention of the model portfolios to this point in the newsletter. In fact after only 3 sentences in that paragraph not geared soley to the QQQ trade, Brinker went right back to his major theme of this entire newsletter--the QQQ CTR.
"One of the great advantages inherent in our large cash reserve position is the flexibility to be able to take advantage short term counter trend opportunities when they are identifiable. We believe the current opportunity is very likely to produce very significant short term gains at least into the first quarter of 2001."
Notice now we are near the bottom of two pages all devoted except for a couple sentences to the QQQ OPPORTUNITY. Now in this next paragraph Fahr claims Brinker gives advice to those who bought the QQQs on his October Act immediately bulletin that never said mentioned the model portfolios and having read through two pages of touting of this QQQ OPPORTUNITY for in excess of 20% gains in 2-4 months and was "identifiable" and Brinker would identify an "exit point" in the months ahead---see if that passes the smell test.
"We will identify and exit point for this short term countertrend rally in our marketimer publications in the months ahead. Since this is a short term opportunity and is not part of our long term investment approach we will not include this recommendation in the model portfolios on page 8. "......
then he goes right back to touting the QQQ trade
In sum, subscribers can use a portion of their 65% cash reserves in order to purchse the QQQs shares or Rydex 0TC shares in amounts that correspond with individual risk tolerance within our page 1 percentage guidelines. The ideal entry level is the low to mid 70s. Purchase during periods of market weakness is recommended for best results."
So you see Brinker spent 98% of the first two pages of his newsletter promoting the QQQ OPORTUNITY and bragging on the benefits of cash reserves to play it. There was a line late on the second page saying that he was not going to include the QQQs in the model portfolios--note now that the QQQs were no longer in the 80s and there was a loss for almost everyone who ACTED IMMEDIATELY at this time. Now in no way did Brinker say "If you are a model portfolio investor who doesn't want to take part in this trade, you should immediately sell the qQQs and return to cash" --- no way did he say. "I am sorry I forgot to mention when I sent that undated, unpriced QQQ ACT IMMEDIATELY bulletin that I was not going to put them in the model portfolios and thus this advice should be looked at suspiciously."
No, the thrust of this letter was "Les BonTiempoRouler" "Let the good times roll" with the QQQs --with a line stuck in the center of the hype that said "oh btw the QQQs will not be covered on page 8" . Anyone who claims that this was a sell recommendation just is wanting to be an apologist. Indeed Brinker never tried to play this game in 2001, where he again restated that those following his advice would have up to 32% of their entire portfolio in the QQQs.
The December 2000 newsletter also shows just how bogus the take Fahr has adopted would be. In the first two pages of Brinker's newsletter he wrote exclusively about the QQQ trade. He bragged on the testing of the lows and claimed that after two pages of hyping it and reiterating how much each investor depending on aggressive or conservative should have in the QQQs from their CASH RESERVES which included funds from the model portfolio sales-- Brinker ends with "In summary highly favorable short term technical indicators suggest a major countertrend rally is likely over the next three to six months. Although the broad market will participate to some extent; the largest percentage gains are expected to occur in the deeply oversold Nasdaq index QQQshares. " ---Not a single mention of risk, suitability, model portfolios, stops --only hype.
So there you have it and each newsletter continued the charade that tells you that no honest person would claim that people buying QQQs in response to that ACT IMMEDIATELY bulletin would have sold them according to the advice Bob Brinker himself was giving subsequent to that bulletin.
If you wish not to concede the point we will have to type Brinker's December 2000 and his 2001 newsletters text under the fair use provisions to show that you are misleading the public on this data. |
