A little Post script from Friday, MM1 and MM2 continue to capture the market in ways that even surprise me. I looked closely at the end of the day data, MM1 finished at 201% of an average days trade, and MM1 at 103% of an average days trade. Those are good gross numbers considering the months of inertia we've seen. However, I selected the 3 stocks that were above their respective daily moving averages for volume and here is how the picture changed. From MM1 I took 2 pieces out, leaving 9 total issues, upon removal of the two issues the gross overall data fell to 65% of an average days trade.
For MM2 I removed 1 issue and the remaining issues composite volume performance against its Average daily volume fell to 37% of an average days trade. Those are mighty wide swings, demonstrating that only three issues can distort the outlook of all 22 in both portfolios without even blinking.
Naturally price was moved the most on the 3 subtracted issues, yet all other issues showed varying degrees of machination, on what could be summarized as disappearing volume.
To cross check I maintain data collection program across approximately 50 other issues, as stand alone non aggragated to portfolios and all but two showed below average trading.
The market as I follow it is SOLD out. There are few real sellers of the investor class, traders and facilitators spend ticks every day to generate directional desire, but stock owners are generally rejecting these attempts.
At this time of year we do get institutional rotations, large blocks moved between funds, often little or none of this volume ever reaches the exchange as supply, its basicly reporting private volume and has no affect on the adjudication of value.
Value adjudication remains systemic; in the absence of Supply and demand. Trade systems intent is sustaining Price as the artifact, and are doing so not surprisingly in the direction of the greatest need as exemplified by the in or out of balance of base line free float math on a stock by stock basis.
We have watched a lot of changing fundamentals faded by the trade systems, over the years you begin to properly characterize these behaviors. Accumulation, distribution, obfuscation, and neutral, remain the valid descriptors of current states reflecting the sum of participation of all classes participating, or not, day to day.
Not surprisingly, Tactics employed day to day, seem well matched to the gross market picture being painted as output from greater systems sensory organs. Investors as share holders, seem notoriously absent from the back and forth machinations.
The mostly private decisions of valuation are occurring across thousands and millions of portfolios whose combined knowledge is superior to the intent spun for psychological purpose by the price as artifact system interests.
Once again, only disconnected Supply and demand allows trade interests to conduct their operations, and once again Valuation, is contra indicated by lack of participation by those that actually buy and hold the security properly characterising things as they really are.
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