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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (28645)10/21/2007 10:52:51 PM
From: Spekulatius  Read Replies (1) of 78740
 
MCO
Yes, maybe they will be so sued. It's not relevant to their stocks though (imo).

it will be relevant if the damages that MCO is going to be sued are significant to their market cap. Since the losses from CDO and such stuff are going to be staggering ( a few 100B$, I think), it is conceivable that the lawsuits would sink MCO and the like.

They agencies will argue - imo successfully - that they gave good faith estimates; they have had nothing to gain by intentionally issuing wrong calls; they are raters which means they offer opinions; they are not people who are promisors or guarantors; and they made reasonable conclusions with the info they had at the time to make the opinions they made. <i/>

This case is different then Enron. With Enron MCO had not much to fear because they had no or very little inside information. But is is notable that Arthur Anderson, which helped Enron to fabricate their numbers went under because of their liability involved with Enron. I believe the situation that the rating agencies are finding themselves in, is much more like Arthur Anderson in Enrons case. MCO ratings were developed with the issues of those now infamous papers. They were paid with the issuers and a significant part of their revenue stream depended on this business. They developed the rules of the game and they did the rating. Without them, there probably would not be a market for those CDO papers. So I think they will get sued for substantial amounts of money, right fully so in my opinion.
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