Carl,
I agree that contrarian views are helpful, but unfortunately, nobody wants to offer one when things are going well for a stock (except the few jerks on SI who spend all their time writing unsupported doomsday posts). When a stock goes down, suddenly the bears come out with posts like "this one's a dog, woof, woof, competitor X is kicking the stuffing out of them; expect to see this stock in single digits by next week."
To be fair, when things are going well, the negatives do not seem that obvious and even if recognized, are usually just speculation. Most people do not want to be unpopular, so unless they are sure of their speculation, they will not speak up.
As for negatives on SPCT, there are several that come to mind, that as a SPCT long, I don't believe will happen:
1. SPCT could lose Nortel to John Chen and PWAV.
2. A competitor will come out with a kick-ass (technical term) product which SPCT can't match.
3. Major customers decide that they can build better power amplifiers in-house (unlikely, the trend is usually the other way).
4. SPCT's products could experience high failure rates in the field, permanently damaging their reputation.
5. The market could level out temporarily after the initial build-out of the N. American PCS infrastructure.
At the moment, the market for power amplifiers is expanding and very few people dispute that it will grow rapidly for the next 5-10 years. SPCT seems to have surprisingly little competition (PWAV, MPDI, in-house), but one place where this thread is weakest is in judging this competition (that is why pseudo-contrarians like John Chen are helpful). If someone can offer good contrarian information, I personally would welcome them on this thread.
Richard |
