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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker, Moneytalk and Marketimer

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From: InvesTing10/22/2007 2:37:26 PM
of 2121
 
Anyone who has watched Brinker work, knows that the QQQ debacle and how he handled it smells to high heaven.

1) Sell equities including model portfolio and raise "cash reserves".

2) Use % of cash reserves without any mention of the model portfolios to buy QQQs (up to 1/2 of those cash reserves.

3) Tout the call in a subsequent newsletter but say in effect "in the small print" that you are not going to account for this short term trade on page 8. Did he say he would NEVER account for this trade on page 8? Nope, he said he wasn't going to put the QQQs into that accounting at that time.

4) In the same newsletter he bragged how having cash reserves (raised in part or whole from selling model portfolios with no distinction made) was the big benefit of his marketiming scheme -so subscribers could take advantage of these short term "OPPORTUNITIES that he could IDENTIFY".

5) He claimed in the newsletter that he would be "identifying an exit point in the coming months and the money would be returned to the cash reserves".

This is a perfect set up for Brinker (if it would have worked) and Math and Dija and Queen and everyone else would swear it made perfect sense. Once you sold the QQQs what would you have? Oh yes, that's right "cash reserves". Well of course those cash reserves should be counted in the model portfolios after all he/they would argue, that's where they came from in large measure. So we take the gains on the 20% of the cash reserves and add to portfolio 3 and we take the gains on 30% and add that to portfolio II and we take the gains on 50% of the original cash reserves and we add that to portofio one.

QQQuite simple and the same people now arguing the earth flat would be just as eager to argue it round, if Brinker would have chosen to do it that way.

What happened though is that Brinker in all his hype, the ill advised, incompetently written bulletin, tremendously overpromised wording of subsequent newsletters --never dealt with the fact that this trade was going to become a total disaster. He held on so long that there was no face saving way to honestly handle it. So he hid it. No cash reserves were ever replaced NOR WILL THEY BE. The decision was made to add some QQQs to every portfolio and claim whenever asked that those are the only QQQs he's aware of.

Nice slick move. But the fact remains because of the duplicity, owners who took Brinker's advice and his ONGOING advice invested in the QQQs and waited for Brinker to tell them to sell and return to cash reserves. Brinker pretends in his portfolios that no QQQs were ever purchased and all of the cash reserves remained unspent from Jan 2000.

You can argue that is a valid honest portrayal of the events and be adamant if you like. Johnny Cochrane and the hired guns were adamant that OJ was innocent.
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