Apple guided to over 9 billion in revenues for the present quarter. Still haven't had a chance to listen to the cc but have they given any breakdown about where they are expecting these revenues to come from? I was just thinking if half of the new revenue is computer related, with an asp of $1,500 per computer, that would mean Apple is looking to sell about a million more computers this present quarter than the previous quarter and we should be looking at over 3 million cpus sold this quarter. That would be about a 50% increase in cpu sales over what is by far, already the best quarter that Apple has ever had selling computers. That would make the present quarter just a monster quarter and would mean that the halo effect is accelerating significantly. If you include that with the great new ipods and the phones as well as the rumors about a subnotebook vs a newton, Apple's next fiscal year could be a monster year and we could be looking at earnings approaching or, if you really want to think aggressively, passing $6 dollars per share which would put the present forward looking pe, subtracting out the $20 per share that Apple has in cash, less than 30. I don't know if the market has fully digested this or not but if and when they do, I wouldn't put it past Apple to be over $200. The numbers here are mind boggling to me and I would imagine to most here who have followed Apple over the years through thick and thin.
Last year they made over $7B in Q1 on 1.6M Mac sales and 21M iPods. I suspect the target involves less than 3M Macs (though near 2.5-2.8 range guess, and it will be awesome if they can achieve that mark) and over 25M iPods, which is an even more impressive given the maturation of the product.
With Leopard out and new Mac Pros due soon, there might be a shift towards higher ASP products. A $2000 range subcompact notebook is rumored, and would be a pleasant surprise.
Several analysts have come out with targets over $200, which before this last quarter seemed a bit rosy, but might just be on the mark. |
