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Strategies & Market Trends : Grant's Interest Rate Observer

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To: Harold S. who wrote (35)	10/24/2007 9:38:07 AM
From: zebra4o1	of 62

Bounce plays? Wish I was nimble enough to play that game. I am always way too bearish and am blind sided by the bounces. For instance, I was up 300% on Ryland (home builder) puts in August 2006, and then road them down to zero in the bounce. (Is it a bounce when the move takes 6 months?) I could easily see TGIC going to zero. But with tons of volatility along the way of course. I'm sure a quality company like PMI will do O.K. in the end. In retrospect, I do have a sure fire indicator that a bounce is due. Whenever I start to feel rich - start making plans on what I am going to do when I cash in my CFC puts, that's when it's time for a bounce. A couple of generaly bearish posters on the The Residential Real Estate Crash Index seem to play theses bounces well: Patron and Seminole I think.

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