SiliconInvestor All Stars Forum Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : SiliconInvestor All Stars Forum

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (1490)	10/24/2007 12:17:36 PM
From: John Vosilla	of 1718

LIG the magnitude of the drops is based on neighborhood and property type.. Land constrained built out areas in FL mostly owner occupied not decimated by overbuilding and speculators are down similar to what you describe in the NY area..perhaps 15-25% at most. Worst hit overbuilt ground zero markets where the economy was too tied to housing are the ones off 50%+ with half the new homes sitting vacant without ability to even find a renter or end user buyers. Even in a place like Miami you would have to distinguish between the 100k+ new condos downtown versus the older tract homes in the suburbs. There were so many aspects to the housing bubble from the lax lending, to overvaluation, speculation, overbuilding, reset of PITI due to many factors. What we see is overbuilding and speculation as the biggest triggers to local crashes so far.. I guess this so because if you live in your house and have a job little has really changed other than ARM resets. As to when we hit bottom it will vary dramatically by area. I don't trust the stats by NAR or the Shiller Index. Just on CNBC it was reported that the NY metro area has continued to 'appreciate'. Mark Haines immediately dismissed it as nonsense for any place outside of Manhattan. Lots of mining of data, median prices not that helpful if the mix changes. You almost have to go get comps house by house in a particular neighborhood to get the real story and even then, especially in older areas with tons of renovation in recent years, that can be skewed<g> Which is why my examples of simple cookie cutter small almost new ranch homes in Florida tends to weed out all the noise as best as possible..

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next