Let's look at Tom's review objectively (admit that his conclusions seems highly biased):
1. C6-200 roughly equals M2-166. M2-166 now sells for ~$85 whole sale, so C6, as the newcomer, should sell now (if they can sell now) for ~$75.
2. After Nov price cut, which will be when IDT can start delivering in small quantities, take 20% off, C6-200 is 'worth' ~$55 with a manufacutring cost of supposedly ~$35. Not bad margins. What is M2 cost? Yes, I know that is not really the valid question because by then the sales would have moved up the 200mHz. Still, it is valid to keep the cost equation in mind.
3. By Feb, when IDT can really deliver volume, take another 20% off for C6-200 ASP of $45 Not only that, but sweet spot in the market is probably one speed grade higher by then. i.e. if IDT cannot deliver big volume before Feb, this chip will have a tough time shipping volumes.
4. By Feb, if not Nov., MediaGX will rule the low-cost PC world, not much room left for any stand alone processors. This is both from the price/performance point of view (MediaGX with MMX, 3D graphics etc.) but also from sales point of view. Compaq, with the help of the MediaGX, has ruled the sub-$1000 PC world. By X'mas, and definetely by next Feb., other box-guys would have no choice but to respond similarily, HP probably being the next big guy.
5. You have to give a thumbs up to the Centeur design concept - much simplier designs with much smaller die size to yield respectable performance. The only problems were two - manufacturing could not deliver, as in shipping last summer when they would have won hands down, and also they got 'ambushed' by the MediaGX in their targeted amrket segment.
6. There IS a market for the C6-200 in replacement CPUs in older systems, just like Tom said. I would buy a bunch myself at $70 today to replace older P5-100 to 133s at the office. But I doubt that that market is that large.
Centeur/IDT make one day make money on the C6, but will not be the C6-200.
patrick tang
PS I don't know about you guys, but for me, Tom's credibility has gone downhill. This time he just reported the results, but just skewed his conclusions. Next time? |
