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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: anializer who wrote (28714)10/26/2007 6:26:24 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris  Read Replies (1) of 78748
 
I don't mind a long(ish) wait. I do think that risks are still there, even though they have been somewhat alleviated. I listened to the conference call and management does sound like they should come out of it without BK. But then they still have joint ventures and bad things may happen there. They also may do something stupid... not because they are idiots, but because they may make mistaken assumptions. E.g. they are talking about paying off 2008 notes by cash flow before they are due. But the notes are very cheap now, so they might buy them off by using revolving credit line. Which is good if it works, but what if they need that revolving credit for other purposes? It's easy to make a misstep in such bad situation and the punishment is rather harsh.

So yeah, I hold, but I may play short term volatility to decrease my share cost and/or shift into ITB. I believe SPF is interesting play, but it is risky. :)
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