It is truly amazing that those who will do or say almost anything to defend their "general" are so willing to ignore almost all of Bob Brinker's Blunders and Bad Calls. They ignore the fact that Marketimer subscribers are paying for all those issues that contain those Blunders and Bad Calls--not just the 50% of issues that by mostly luck happen to be correct.
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Brinker made several Blunders and Bad Calls, besides TEFQX. For instance, Brinker was 100% invested Black Monday October, 1987. He went to 100% cash in January, 1988 and missed out on a lot of market gains before re-entering the market at 100% in January 1991.
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Brinker often makes other blunders that are simply ignored or excused by his apologists. For instance the "buying opportunity" that he sent out after it was too late to take advantage of it, e.g., "1380 and lower." And then there was the "1450-range" buying opportunity which was breached back to the previous 1380-recommendation, but only after the market set new highs.
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Brinker spent many issues of Marketimer telling his subscribers that the market had entered a "secular bear megatrend." He also told Moneytalk listeners about this secular bear. As of now, he has covered up this whole shocking market-timing Blunder.
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Interestingly, Bob Brinker tracks his model portfolios back to January 1988. This effectively covers up the 1987-1991 blunders. Just as he didn't account for the THREE calls for countertend rallies in October 2000, January 2001, and March 2001--when he said buy QQQQ because he expected the Nasdaq to "lead" the rallies.
Here is a list that shows the exact percentage of Brinker's cash to equities since 1987. (I believe that Math Junkie assembled part of the following list.)
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Aug 21, 1987.....equities @ 100% ................2710
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Oct 19, 1987......equities @ 100%................1841
(Black Monday: Dow Down 695 pts or 25.6% From Top.)
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Jan. 1988.......equities @ Zero................2015
(Went to 100% cash & told listeners he was
bearish after the market was 9.5% above
bottom, taking the brunt of most of the
bear decline.)
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Feb. 1989... equities @ 50%........................2342
(Market up 27% from the bottom.)
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Nov 1989....equities @ 75%.........................2650
Feb 1990.... equities @ 40%..................2559
Mar.1990.....equities @ 50%..................2635
Apr. 1990..... equities @ 65%.................2687
May 1990......equities @ 75%.................2656
July..1990......equities @ 85%.................2840
July 18, 1990: Dow @ 3016....(Bull peak: up 50% since Jan. 1988)
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Oct. 12, 1990: Dow @ 2398
(Gulf War bear bottom
Down 20.5% since bull peak.)
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Dec. 1990...equities @ 95%....................2565
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Jan. 1991.... equities @ 100%..................2550
(Fully invested: Dow up 26.7% since going to 0% equities,
missed out on a large portion of market gains between
January 1988 - January 1991.)
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(Nine years - January 1991 to January 2000 - correct to be fully invested.
(Rode out 1998 selloff.)
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(Honey EC here: Brinker began using S&P 500 Index as model portfolio measure about 1998.)
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Jan. 2000... equities @ 40% .........Dow: 11, 122
(Lowered within 5.1% of S&P top.)
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Aug. 2000... equities @ 35% ...........Dow: 10,688
(65% now in cash reserves)
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Oct. 16, 2000...QQQ = $83
(Told subscribers to put 20% to 50% of cash reserves into QQQ.)
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Jan. 8, 2001...QQQ = $62.44
(Again suggested putting 20% to 50% of cash reserves into QQQ.
Reiterated in February through May 2001 issues.)
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March 2001...admitted he was wrong about the January rally and suggested another one was imminent.
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June 8, 2001...QQQ = 47.35....Placed on hold.
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Sept. 21, 2001...Dow 8236 - hit 7926.93 intraday.
(Had no expectation of "long-term negative effects on investment markets" because of 9/11/01.)
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Oct. 2002...21% actually remaining in equities...Dow 8950
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.(Still recommended 35% equities, but P1 in newsletter is 21% equities (not counting QQQ trades apparently due to lack of rebalancing.)
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March 12, 2002...23% balance in equities...Dow 10,586
(DJIA +28.5% from 9/23/01 closing.
DJIA same level as August 2000 5% sell.)
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Oct 9, 2002...19% balance in equities...Dow: 7286
(Cyclical low so far. QQQ = 20.06, down 75.8% from
10/16/00 buy at $83.)
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March 11, 2003: equities @ 100%...Dow: 7568
(Issued bulletin on website before open based on March 10th close. QQQ = 24.01; S&P500 = 807.48; SPY = 81.32.
He provided NO guidance for existing QQQ positions.)
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March 15, 2003....Announced 100% to weekend audience.
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March 17, 2003 (Monday)....Dow: 8142
(QQQ = 26.60; S&P500 = 862.79; SPY = 86.78
typical buy levels for weekend and snail mail
followers who use mutual funds.)
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April 5....100%...Recommended new equity purchases below S&P 810
and dollar cost averaging otherwise. Stopped mentioning existing QQQ positions in the newsletter text. It was never again accounted for in his reports of newsletter performance.)
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April 2003 Marketimer: Pg 2 Paragraph 5 states quite clearly:
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"Due to the significant stock market rebound that began a few days after our March 11 buy signal, we recommend that subscribers who did not take advantage of the price weakness take a disciplined approach to new purchases. For example, a gradual dollar cost average strategy allows for investment into the market during periods of stock market weakness in an environment that remains volatile and sensitive to changing geopolitical developments."
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Data between 1986 and Dec. 2000 compiled by Dan Gibbons
Data between Dec. 2000 and July 2002 compiled by Kirk Lindstrom
Data between July 2002 and today compiled by Steve Thompson.
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-- posted by honeybee2
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