MDA EarthSat 06-07 Winter Outlook Colder than Last Year and Close to 30Y Normal
Thursday November 1, 10:40 am ET
ROCKVILLE, Md.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--MDA EarthSat Energy Weather (part of MDA Federal in Rockville, MD) is forecasting the Dec-Jan-Feb period to average 4% colder than last year and 1% warmer than the 30-year normal (1971-2000). On that track, this would be the coldest winter since 03-04.
Regionally, the winter period is forecast to be warmer than normal across the Southern tier, from Texas to the Southeast. Seasonal to below normal temperatures are seen across the Northern tier, including the Pacific Northwest, Chicago, and the Northeast. The Western states are forecast to average closer to normal levels as well with the coolest (and wettest) chances for the Pacific Northwest.
The latest official forecast is derived via MDA EarthSat’s unique consensus-based forecasting technique, which has performed well the last two seasons (within 2% last summer and 1% last winter). Matt Rogers, Deputy Director of Weather for MDA EarthSat, notes that this year continues to be the mirror-opposite of last year: “Instead of a cool Autumn and a very warm start to the winter, this year looks to unfold in reverse with a currently very warm fall translating into a colder than normal heating season start. Parts of the Midwest and East could even see snow as early as next week.” The current consensus outlook favors a colder December, warmer January, and a mixed February outcome. Much will depend on the La Niña status too, which is forecast by MDA EarthSat to remain in the weak to moderate range this winter.
MDA EarthSat Energy Weather provides consulting support for over 300 companies active in risk management for the energy sector. Forecast percentages based on national natural gas weighted heating degree days. For more information, please contact Christopher.Hyde@mdafederal.com.
Contact:
MDA Federal
Chris Hyde
Manager, Product Sales
240-833-8322
christopher.hyde@mdafederal.com
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Given how warm these last 2 winters have been, its not saying all that much to say that this might be the coldest winter since '03-'04. But we natty bulls will take all that we can get!
It feels like I'm with Alice in Wonderland, looking at natty futures rally on the very day that natty storage makes an all-time high, on a higher-than-expected fill, with prospects for another higher than normal fill for the upcoming week. I am keeping my UNG short out there even as I see it go into more and more of a losing position. Maybe the markets will wake up to reality next Thursday? |
