LIG,
I do not have numbers, I will try and see if I can dig up something. But what GST is saying is very very real, and its impact should not be under-estimated. I came to US ten years ago from India as a Computer Science grad student. I have about 8 years of experience working for tech companies - giants such as Microsoft and also early-stage startups in the valley. I know a large number of immigrant tech professionals.
In the last couple of years, I am seeing more and more of my friends returning to India. Everyone I know has at least started thinking about it and they talk about it all the time. Most of them are waiting for US citizenship which on average takes a ridiculously long 10 years -- five years for permanent residency and five more past that point. Ironically they will leave USA immediately after becoming US citizens which leaves the option of returning open and helps international travel.
Even five years ago, no one I know even considered it as an option. Strengthening rupee, excellent career growth opportunities, liberalizing economy and culture, decreasing difference in standards of living, roaring stock and real estate markets -- plenty of motivations. Usually the first step is to join Indian subsidiaries of US tech giants as mid-level managers, but all of them eventually want to lauch their own businesses. So for a while, US tech companies will benefit at the cost of quality jobs leaving US, and consumer spending and investments shrinking. But in the long run, US will probably lose significant competitive advantages.
A lot of the top engineering graduates from IITs etc. are skipping the immigration path altogether -- why go through the hassle of 10 years of uncertain indentured employment when you can get a job at Google India or Microsoft India straight out of school, or, even better, do an MBA from IIMs and shuffle money in the booming investment banking/private equity/vc sectors in India or East Asia?
For theorerical scientists, US is still a big attraction as the academia/research in India has not been reformed/liberalized as much as the industrial/corporate sectors and they can not really compete with US institutions in luring the best scientists. But even that is changing slowly. One of my high school buddies who was working at NASA and recently pioneered a technique for determining the properties of neutrino stars and establishing Einstein's predictions nasa.gov
is going back to TIFR (Tata Institute of Fundamental Research), Bombay this month because of immigration uncertainties and potential of significantly more responsibilities and respect.
I am guessing this pattern holds true for other Asian countries as well. |
