Gold is vulnerable due to huge spec positions, I agree, it will
have a sharp correction at some point. 800 seems to be
a good number. If not, then I guess we are going higher to
test 880 -g- Personally, I think
it could be predicting the last washout phase of dollar
devaluation, and gold is a good LT hold regardless of
short term COT swings. It will get into 4 digits
eventually, maybe 5. Maybe, China is quietly exchanging
their worthess dollar reserves for gold, who knows. Physical
market is more important.
The dollar index could drop to 60, or to 40, and quickly.
The rest depends on how the Fed deals with blowing up debt.
If they start monetarizing it hand over fist, and so far
they stopped doing that, it's a
hyperinflation scenario. If they let it blow up, then we'll have
to get through very hard times of higher LT rates, inflation
in essentials (food and energy) and deflation in assets and
debt. That's hyperstagflation. So far long-term rates are not
moving up to discount high currency risk. |
