The points Williams makes are very good. The only answer I would make is that the proponents of PO have taken historical production figures which necessarily take into account the political difficulties faced at the time. Moreover, the historical production figures have increased as significant oil fields were discovered in Mexico, Alaska, the North Sea, etc. I don't think anyone would argue that there have been any significant discoveries recently.
I believe PO is absolutely a fact. We may have reached it or are about to. Because PO will be taking place at a time when China, India, and others will be clamoring for more oil, it will undoubtedly be the most significant economic fact of the next 10-20 years. I would argue that even if we can sustain present levels of production, which is doubtful, the increased demand by itself would make the energy field a very rosy one for investors. Couple increased demand with falling production, and the consequences are obvious. I have positioned myself accordingly because the serendipitous occurrence of increased demand for crude at the same time production falls presents a once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity.
For the first time in decades, there really is a new paradigm in place, and it is staring us in the face. |
