Success in Iraq is success for McCain.
Kristol: A Five-Way Race (Continued)
CAMPAIGN STANDARD BLOG
A week ago I suggested the Republican presidential contest could legitimately be considered a five-way race.
Now a new Washington Post/ABC national poll has Giuliani at 33 percent (down 1 point from a month ago), McCain at 19 percent (up 7), Thompson at 16 percent (down 1), Romney at 11 percent (unchanged), and Huckabee at 9 percent (up 1). The Rasmussen tracking poll, which has a much tighter screen for GOP primary voters (and is probably more meaningful), has Giuliani at 21 percent (down 2 from a month-ago), Thompson at 17 percent (down 5), McCain at 15 percent (up 3), Romney at 12 percent (down 2), and Huckabee at 12 percent (up 7). In both polls, the "second tier" candidates, McCain and Huckabee, are gaining, and the "first tier" candidates aren't. What's more, in Iowa Huckabee is now in a tie for second place (in the RealClearPolitics average), and in New Hampshire McCain's running third.
So: Giuliani's ahead in the national polls (and has raised the most money from individual contributors), but trails in the first two states. Romney is ahead in the first two states (and has lots of money at his disposal), but is mired at just above 10 percent nationally. Thompson is still, in my view, well-positioned to be the nominee, but he's drifted down a bit in the last month. And the two longer-shots are moving into contention. It's true they have the least money. But it's also quite possible Huckabee will win Iowa, and/or McCain New Hampshire. How much money would that be worth? |
