While I'm in the lead, I'll give a brief explanation for my picks. The volatility in the Stock Picking for Charity contest portfolios indicates that luck contributes as much as skill.
sic transit gloria
I picked ten stocks and allocated an equal amount in each for simplicity. To a degree, I was interested in "platforms" rather than betting on the success or failure of a particular drug.
I picked AFFX and ILMN because I have been interested in gene chips and gene expression analysis for quite a while, as it could help diagnose disease and identify what drugs will work best for a particular patient. It also seems like a trendy idea this year, and may finally be realizing its promise. I knew that AFFX had lawsuits against ILMN for patent infringement, so assumed the loser would drop in price. Instead, both stocks have gone up, and AFFX has filed more lawsuits.
SRDX has made a name for itself in providing coatings for drug eluting stents, but hasn't been hit by the same problems as Medtronic and Boston Scientific, in part because they pursue other areas.
MEDX developed mice that produce fully human antibodies, potentially making a more effective, less immunogenic equivalent to various antibody drugs on the market. It's performance has been disappointing. AMGN bought ABGX, a similar company, but seemed more interested in the manufacturing facilities than the mouse platform. MEDX has had exploratory partnerships with various companies, but that hasn't been enough for them to become profitable, although they have enough cash on hand to sustain their burn rate for the time being. Medarex is developing an antibody treatment for melanoma with BMY which should yield results and undergo FDA scrutiny fairly soon, but many promising melanoma treatments have failed in the past.
IMM Simple, yet attractive approach to treating various diseases. They focus on viral diseases that often afflict third world countries. Their ultimate success or failure is unclear. The company is not a darling on Wall Street, but gets payments from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and others to fund their research.
GIVN has "pill cams" that broadcast pictures of the GI tract, targeting the small intestine, esophagus, or colon, after patients swallow the disposable video capsule. It's like the sci-fi movie "Fantastic Voyage", but approved for use and more palatable to some than endoscopy tubes and anesthesia.
BJGP Anything related to China seemed poised to fly late last year, including their pharmaceutical market. This stock would make traders happy. Its share price has been all over the map in the last year, and is down substantially since Halloween, when they announced they would raise $23 million by issuing promissory notes and warrants to private investors. I can't predict where its price will be by year end.
CELG, CVTX, and GILD. I picked them in part to round it out to ten stocks.
CVTX has been the only real "crash and burn" on results stock in my portfolio. It took hits in March and July because Ranexa sales may be lower than initially forecast, but it could have been worse. It laid off staff to cut costs, and has other drugs in the pipeline.
CELG actually turns a profit, still a somewhat novel concept in the biotech sector, Thalomid and Revilmid help carry the company.
GILD has found success in the HIV market. They are developing an early stage drug for Hepatitis C, but recent results showing a potential elongation of the QT interval that might lead to heart problems could halt development if confirmed.
CELG 10.00%
MEDX 10.00%
CVTX 10.00%
GILD 10.00%
SRDX 10.00%
IMM 10.00%
BJGP 10.00%
GIVN 10.00%
ILMN 10.00%
AFFX 10.00% |
