DECODE GENETICS-*DCGN Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : DECODE GENETICS-*DCGN

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To: DewDiligence_on_SI who wrote (289)	11/5/2007 11:34:34 PM
From: pgo-neil	Read Replies (1) of 313

>This is an ugly balance sheet: ... >Total liabilities 300,375 >Shareholders' equity (114,232) Most [2/3rds] of the debt is convertible [price about $14 a share], so assuming the company has any value in 2011, there will be about 25% dilution. Of course the big question is, how will DCGN survive til 2011 given its annual deficits? I think it has between 6 and 8 quarters cash. So it probably has to partner either one of its trial drugs or its genetic testing products. It is hard to value the 3 current genetics products and the 2 that should launch soon, but I am not optimistic that they will contribute positive margin. After a couple years MYGN is still negative at the margin with tests that have more support in the health payment community. It could further dilute [at these relative low prices], sell some risk to Symphony like LXRX did, or get swallowed once any of its products looks commercially viable. The total picture is not pretty, but also not necessarily ugly either. Does anyone have insight into the genetic test sales? graham --

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