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Strategies & Market Trends : SiliconInvestor All Stars Forum

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (1505)	11/6/2007 6:50:57 AM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (1) of 1718

John, astute observation. This is very similar to the late 80's (2 years after the crash of 87 the GLOBAL economy went into recession) and late 90's (two years after the 98 debacle the GLOBAL economy went into recession). People keep acting like the economy is global only now. It's always been global, IMO, it's just that the number of real "players" was smaller and hence figuring out cycle turns was easier. My guess is that the U.S. and Japan are in hard landings, Europe is not far behind. The relative strength in the emerging economies creates opportunities on the long side in the "globalized" sectors. We may get one major drawdown and then race up into new highs and suck everyone in. This is a fantastic environment for those who can go long and short. The key risk here is that this cycle is playing out a little different than 1998 in that inflation expectations are much higher, the dollar much weaker, monetary policy more impotent so I wouldn't advocate at this point 100% net long equities for the average JOE.

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