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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 77.42

+4.6%

3:59 PM EST

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To: RetiredNow who wrote (74388)	11/6/2007 9:46:05 AM
From: Dinesh	Read Replies (4) of 77398

The worldwide oil demand is rising but the production is capacity constrained besides being at the political will of various kinds of despots and dictators. Therefore I think the oil bubble is far from done yet. My speculation is some kind of crisis developing in 2008/H1, eventually lead to a peak and begin a bust around 2009. China is going to start slowing down soon, probably early next year. Olympics are today what y2k was then. That means a cooling down in steel and other metals/commodities shortly. When China slows down, emerging markets stock markets are going to catch a bad case of flu because a lot of that is riding on commodities. But Tech is different this time :) Esp. the kind that has become "corporate staples". These also happen to have significant overseas sales too because computing technologies are pretty much universal. Separately, on that $1T market cap. JIMHO, the way "market cap" is calculated is pure, unadulterated bs. It's as if a large portion of the theory of finance could be boiled down to a simple multiplication. For small investors, it's OK is valuing their portfolios. But at instituitional levels, even a sell order of $10B (at market) of PetroChina is probably going to shrink that $1T number in such a hurry. And a buy order may do just the opposite. So, how good is that number? Maybe just as good as that $500B CSCO number was... Regards

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