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Pastimes : Where the GIT's are going
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From: Augustus Gloop11/7/2007 1:44:47 PM
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Folks, most of you know I've been a bear since about 13,600 (dow) in July. We've had some periods where we've gone above that number but not by much and not for very long. Each time we get around 14,000 we break down. Everyone has been wanting and applauding lower interest rates but its killing our dollar. For better or worse the dollar is what buys our oil and consumer goods. What that means is we're importing inflation because we consume foreign goods at a far greater rate than we export. My opinion was that we needed to address the housing bubble with a government plan rather than lower general rates. I hate big government too but it was the only way to accomplish fixing the problem without creating an inflation issue. It also makes our treasuries less attractive to countries because the interest rate return is now lower. This means they aren't as thrilled about floating our debt and thats NOT GOOD. If you aren't actively repositioning AT LEAST your retirement dollars you're putting yourself in serious danger. I'm not and I can't give anyone personal advice but I'm right about the severity of the situation. The current risk/reward in the market is not worth the exposure IMO. Don't let the rah rah talking heads convince you otherwise. Oil is almost 100.00 per barrel and that isn't all risk premium! That number reflects an irritation by OPEC nations about the sinking value of our currency. We don't need another rate cut because its a short term fix. We better start acting in the interests of whats best for the long term or we're in for another return to the 1970's

They say History never repeats but that isn't true when it comes to the market - call me crazy for now but I WILL be proven right.
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