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Strategies & Market Trends : Peabody Coal vanguard retirement forum

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From: MACD X	11/9/2007 7:50:32 PM
	of 75

11 10 07 WARNING UPDATE. stockcharts.com The chart above is the vanguard prime cap fund that I have recommended as the best sector to be in 100%. This has turned out to be a safe heaven as it has not gone down nearly as much as the other funds. So we are in the right sector. Technically on the chart above the signals are still in tact with the blue line over the red line, this is a stay invested recommendation as nothing has changed. You must realize that the market doesnt go strait up or down but zig zags alone the way as it goes. I mention a few weeks ago to expect further down side. I am still saying this as I dont believe the markets are anywhere near a bottom yet. This can be seem from the chart and the indicator that is blue that is below the chart. In every case the signal has come from low on the indicator and the sell signals have come from the high on the chart. It has just currently givin a sell signal as the signals on this indicator come the same way as the signals on our chart [a crossing of the blue line and the red line on the indicator that is in blue] This indicator is call a stochastic indicator and the discription of what it does is below. stockcharts.com There is 2 ways to look at the situation and that is to follow the plan and stay invested. It will take another 8 to 10 percent loss to issue the signal to sell. Over the long term this is exceptable as a warning to get out. This will happen when the red line that we follow crosses the blue line and is about 10% away. Or for those that are more risk adverse, and because this rally is long and is due a sharp correction or possible worse, I would recommend exiting now to a safer fund like cash. Just issue a sell order and dont reinvest in anything. This should set you in cash. Exiting in a bull market is risky because you can miss the next great up move, so for those that do decide to exit here be prepared to reinvest when price crosses up over the blue moving average that we just crossed under and wait on the stochastics to give the re-enter signal in the area that the others have come from. I will likely issue this same warning if we continue upward because most of us are 15 to 20% up this year which in itself is a very good year, I prefer to protect this gain as the rally is long and every down move should be looked at as the start of a major down move. But no be afraid to step back in if the signs are givin Those not understanding this recommendation email me at vdunn@like2invest.com and I will walk you thru it.

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