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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 74.19

+0.7%

1:14 PM EST

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To: Elroy who wrote (74531)	11/10/2007 2:46:26 AM
From: Dinesh	Read Replies (5) of 77400

I could find much by way of free data. But SPY 3year std deviation is of the order of 8% while mean is about 13%. SPY pretty much tracks SP500. Going by this limited data, projecting a 33% chance for SPY falling by 10% even in a year appears somewhat of a stretch. This is like asking the odds for being ([-10-13]/8 = -2.875) sigmas away from the mean. The probability is approximately 0.002. I am sure someone here has access to deeper data. Most likely, the std deviation will be a little higher and mean a little lower, but the claim made will likely still remain a stretch. ( BTW. where do you get such free data? ) If one wanted to, one could further scale the results by applying the beta for CSCO and get a little better numbers. I'll take a pass for now. Can it happen? Yes. There is after all a world of difference between possibility and probability. regards

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