The Republicans Have a Chance
If they clear four hurdles.
by Fred Barnes
11/12/2007, Volume 013, Issue 09
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Republicans, though still traumatized by their resounding defeat in the 2006 election, are growing convinced they can win the White House again in 2008. They believe things are beginning to turn their way. The war in Iraq is being won. The Democratic Congress is so unpopular that even House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says she disapproves of it. The economy, despite the subprime mortgage problem, is resilient. And several issues are emerging in their favor--taxes, national security, and illegal immigrants.
Best of all, Hillary Clinton is the likeliest Democratic presidential nominee. She has one quality Republicans appreciate: She unites Republicans everywhere in furious opposition as no other Democrat does. John Edwards, correct for once, told Clinton in last week's Democratic presidential debate that Republicans "keep bringing you up" not because she's a strong candidate but because "they may actually want to run against you." That's exactly what Republicans want. They think she's highly beatable.
Having Clinton as their foe, however, won't be sufficient for Republicans to hold the presidency in 2008. There are (at least) four political problems they must deal with successfully to win--problems that aren't on the front burner except at Republican headquarters in Washington.
Here are the four:
Hispanics. President Bush won 40 percent of the growing Hispanic vote in 2004, but Republican candidates got roughly 30 percent in the 2006 midterm election. And practically everything Republicans have done since then has tended to alienate Hispanics.
Defeat of the immigration reform bill earlier this year, with its pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants
in the United States, troubled many Hispanics. While Republicans weren't solely responsible for killing the bill, they claimed the credit. This fall, Republicans have stressed the less divisive issues of denying driver's licenses and in-state college tuition to illegals.
A massive repair job is needed if Republicans hope to regain support among Hispanics. This is critical. Bush defeated John Kerry by 2.4 percentage points in 2004. If Bush's Hispanic backing had been cut in half, he might have lost. And that's what Republicans are threatened with in 2008--getting half of Bush's vote.
Ohio. Richard Nixon was famous for saying Ohio is the key to winning the White House. No Republican president has ever been elected without winning Ohio. Republicans lost the governorship, a Senate seat, and a House seat in 2006, and three Republican House members are retiring in 2008. The Republicans have slightly less than a 50 percent chance in Ohio next year.
The good news is that Ohio Republicans are prepared to fight. "The negativity against Republicans isn't anything like it was in 2006," Ohio Republican congressman Pat Tiberi says. Unpopular governor Bob Taft III is gone, as is the corruption issue. Ohio Republicans have a solid voter turnout infrastructure that saved House members Steve Chabot and Deborah Pryce last year. They'll need it in 2008.
Ohio Republicans relish the idea of running against Hillary Clinton. But what if she chose Ted Strickland, Ohio's likable Democratic governor, as her running mate? He's a bit of a lightweight, but he's also begun rebuilding the Democratic party in the state. "I don't know what [Strickland] brings you except Ohio," says Tiberi. Ohio is enough.
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