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Strategies & Market Trends : Investing for the Long Run

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To: tyc:> who wrote (67)11/14/2007 11:10:38 AM
From: tyc:>   of 68
 
Blog continued...

Arising from recent postings, I have made a nifty change in my strategy. (Caveat emptor) ! The results remain to be seen but....

My benchmark will remain XSP.to, which is the S&P500 hedged to the Canadian dollar. (Just because it is my benchmark doesn't imply that I am heavily invested in it..... but I am... and I also hold SPY which is the S&P500 unhedged !)

According to my understanding, "Hedged to the Canadian dollar" implies that there is both a relationship to the S&P 500 AND a relationship to Canadian dollar.

If the CAD price is stable, it doesn't matter whether one owns SPY or XSP.to.... both will perform the same.

However if the Canadian dollar trends UP as it has in recent years, in Canadian dollar terms, XSP will outperform SPY. SPY may perform well, but XSP will perform better. I have enjoyed this ! Conversely, IF/AS the Canadian dollar weakens, SPY will outperform XSP.to; (XSP would perform miserably if the S&P drops further AND the CAD weakens)

I am therefore monitoring the Canadian dollar ($CDW). Every time it touches a new two-week low I shall trade some XSP.to for SPY. Conversely, if it continues to strengthen (above $1.10US) every new two week high will see me sell SPY to buy XSP.

Should be good practice for "trend following"
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