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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Road Walker who wrote (358875)11/17/2007 2:19:53 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) of 1576641
 
Here's a portrait of the condo market in Seattle for the past year. Traditionally, condos are the weak sister to detached homes and don't do quite as well. I bet the action depicted in the charts is reflective of what's happening nationwide except that Seattle started in a much better place in January.



You can see where the price increases between 2006 and 2007 have maintained the same ratio pretty much throughout the year with the notable exceptions of Jan and Feb when the market was coming off of boom conditions.



There are the big price spikes in Jan and Feb dropping down to the low for the year [so far] in July when the credit markets collapsed. Since then, we see a steady rise in the ratio.



This chart shows the increase in inventory.....it looks huge until you see the chart below which indicates we now have a little less than a six month inventory of condos........considered a balanced market. I wonder who the people were putting all those units on the market this year......it looks like it was speculators but why would they when the rental market is seeing a rental price boom this year? I don't know. Another possibility........condo production was higher in 2006.



You can see that in Aug. and Sept for the first time in 2006.....pending listings were less than last year but in Oct they are back to even. I think that's the dynamic being played out in most areas of the country. I also think we are creating some pentup demand that won't show itself until next Spring.



In spite of the smaller pendings in Aug and Sept, closed transactions remained higher for each of those months compared to the prior year.



This year we went from a three month absorption rate to a Sept spike up to six months...that has come back down a little in Oct. Again, I bet that's what is happening in other housing markets with the exception that the other markets started at higher levels of build up inventory.
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